WHAT'S NEXT: INNOVATIONS IN NEWSPAPERS

A very interesting analysis about Apple shares from Mark Riddix.

In summary:

“Shares of Apple Inc. dropped to $250 today. Apple’s stock has been in a steady freefall over the past 3 weeks. Shares have fallen from the $270’s and the stock has trimmed over $15 billion dollars off of its market cap…

I think that the drop in Apple’s shares is not totally due to the glitch. Apple’s shares have followed a similar pattern after the introduction of the iPad, and previous generation iPhones. Investors bid the stock up ahead of the introduction of a new product and then dump the shares after the product launch. This strategy is creating a buying opportunity for smart investors.

While Apple may have to modify existing phones or give free bumper cases to iPhone users, the fundamental growth story at Apple still remains unchanged. Consumer demand is still extremely high for the iPhone 4G and the iPad. Apple is still on pace to earn over $16 per share next year. Apple is currently trading at a significantly discounted multiple to the company’s historical P/E of 32.

If the rumors are true about Verizon getting the iPhone, that would open up a whole new market for Apple. Analysts estimate that Apple could easily sell an additional 12 to 15 million iPhones in the first year alone…

Apple may be a $230 billion dollar company but the growth is alive and well. The P/E ratio at 15 is actually lower than the company’s projected growth rate of 16.5%. Apple deserves to trade at a premium valuation not a discounted one. Even if you attached the industry average P/E and multiply it by the average earnings estimate, Apple is worth at least $350 per share.

At $250 or below, Apple is definitely a buy.

Disclosure: I do not own shares of Apple.”

He is right.

(Picture by Andrew Harrer / Bloomberg)

Bad news?

Send any press release or held a press conference on Fridays…

That’s the PR tradition.

So Apple not very active PR department (the fans do the work for them) announced the iPhone 4 press conference… for tomorrow Friday.

Why?

My feeling is that not because they want to hide the bad news (they are right now everywhere) or because they need to give time to the press to come to Cupertino (in less than 12 hours any American, European or Asian journalist will be able to show up in California) but… because they are trying to gain as much time as possible in order to fix the problem, organize any refund, respond to any recall or to have the supply chain ready with the new phones.

The press conference is going to be at 10 am (California time), so the markets in New York (2 pm) still will be open, and able to react to the news.

This is my take:

If the news were BAD, they will had organize the press conference AFTER the closing of the markets in Manhattan.

But because there will be GOOD news, they want Apple shares going up as soon as possible as the best response to the iPhone 4 crisis.

Right now the shares are going down, like in the past few days: from $261 on July 8 to less than $247 today.

So this is my advice: buy Apple shares tomorrow morning BEFORE the press conference and cash them in the evening.

And buy a new fixed iPhone 4.

As you know, Apple reports its quarterly earnings  today.

What we can expect?

Big numbers again, for sure.

Associated Prss goes wild and said a few minutes ago: Apple is expected to say Tuesday that its net income in the most recent quarter jumped 85 percent, boosted by brisk iPhone sales.

Apple said it expects earnings in the range of $2.06-$2.18 per share for the quarter and revenue of $11.0 billion-$11.4 billion.

Apple’s share price has been setting all-time highs since March 5, and last week it came near to $250.

That’s a 220% increase in 15 months.

With almost one million iPads sold in the first 17 day in the USA (remember that it took them 74 days to sell a million first-generation iPhones) the new Apple tablet could become a killing product for the next quarter.

Plus the new iPhone OS that can send the shares of Apple to the$300 mark.

But as always Apple will downplay the estimates… in order to beat them, again and again.

The San Francisco Chronicle explains all this very well.

UPDATE from Fortune:

The consensus on Wall Street, according to the latest poll by Thomson Financial, is that Apple will report earnings of $2.45 a share on revenue of $12.04 billion — which would make Q2 2010 easily Apple’s best second quarter ever.

The first real test review of the iPad sent today the Apple shares to their historical record: at almost $239 USD.

From $199 USD on January 28, the day after the iPad presentation.

One year ago they were at $108 USD.

That means a +118% annual return

And still there are techies saying that the iPad is not a revolution.

Well, must be a “poor product” but not a bad investment!

UPDATE: corrected numbers, than to GE!

Big news from the Apple shareholders meeting today in Cupertino:

Very soon, 25 Apple stores in China.

iPhone now in 70 countries.

Apple is now the top notebook provider to education in US.

Elmer-DeWitt reported the best line of the meeting:

“Steve is as feisty as ever (suggesting that questioners come to an actual question) and in good humor! …Another shareholder then asked a long winded question about what Apple/Jobs fears, “What keeps you awake at night?” Jobs deadpans: “Shareholders meetings.” Audience erupts in laughter.”

After the annual meeting, the Apple shares are UP.

WOW!