In a pilots forum, somebody asks the right questions:
1 Has any research aircraft / UAV flown and measured the concentration of dust in the different areas around the volcano. I fail to understand how an area from 85 east to 55 west and 70 north to 40 south can all have dangerous concentrations of dust. As an astronomer last night the sky at my home in Essex was the clearest I’ve seen it in months.
2 Of course understand that directly downwind for a certain distance that there will be danger however what is the dispersal rate of the dust. Where I live in the UK every summer we have dust fall out from the Desert and nobody seems bothered by that.
3 What is the validation of the computer model used to show the rate of contamination / dispersion of the dust. i.e. how valid are these predictions. Somebody please tell me that this is a tested and proved computer model and not just a met mans whim!!!
4 I expect the ‘Be safe police / regulators ‘ will jump on my mail but I’m schedule to fly to the far east on Tuesday and if I’m cancelled I want to know it was for the right reason and not some government nerd covering his butt.
Another pilot adds:
“What many here don’t seem to understand is that if this lunacy goes on for much longer many of us are going to get a real long break from flying…”
And this one makes a lot of sense:
The decision to close down aviation will certainly reduce the risk of an accident, and will save some lives just by reducing the hours flown, and the amount of duty free cigarettes and alcohol sold -but it will also probably cause many deaths and injuries and other effects – which need to be understood so that the decision can be taken balancing the risks.
Some that can think of are:
(1) Immediate loss of life / injury caused by lack of air ambulance flights, stress related illneses, people being forced to stay in countries with less sanitation etc. loss of supply of drugs
(2) Displacement deaths: More deaths on roads, ferries, etc. due to increased traffic
(3) Economically related deaths. Millions in africa rely on air transported products (flowers,fruits, veg) to earn wages – their lower standard of living will cause deaths. Pilots, cabin crew, airport staff and their families will earn less money – generally less money means higher death rates
(4) Indirect loss of life due to loss of progress of life saving drugs (less business meetings etc.)
(5) Dangers due to loss of flying experience if pilots have periods of many weeks without flying
(6) Increased chance of death caused by soldiers in Afghanistan etc having to extend their tours of duty, and reduced interaction between govenrnemnts possibly increasing tensions / frictions etc.
“Whatever these risks are, they demonstrate that somebody who knows only about the risks of volcanic ash and aviation can not be the decision maker about whether or not to shut down aviation. It needs to be somebody who can balance the risks of flying with the risks of not-flying.
For example, in the UK, around 3,000 people die in road accidents caused by motor cars each day, but presumably lives would be lost by banning all motorised road transport, not least of which would be horse related.
On that basis, I wonder who the decision maker really is, and where they are looking for the data to balance with?”